Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Global Market Analysis- Dawn of a Meltdown?
Global equity markets have been through volatile times and we noticed some rebound since been affected by the US subprime mortgage market collapse. What started of in the subprime sector enveloped the prime home loan as well as the securitized debt markets as a spillover effect. Yet, the Fed and the Central banks were quick enough to buffer the market crisis with the former cutting interest rates and the later pumping huge money, around $550 billion till now, into the markets. The cumulative effort saw the markets react with some bull rallies before turning volatile again. The CME volatility index has been around 21-23 last month against 37 in August, the highest since last year. Some banking consolidation has taken place since the subprime with major investment banks re-pricing risks on MBS bonds. Hedge funds also have reported some big losses exposed to the MBS bonds.
The other prime market mover is the crude oil, which have in fact quite rude on the markets. Oil price shock with Nymex touching nearly $100, have had enough stress on the economy. The OPEC is expecting some oil price moderation and the oil is expected to settle in the range of $ 70-$ 85 per barrel in 2008. The depreciating US $ have been implicated to be one of the cause of rising crude oil price, apart from supply constraint and gulf events. Sustained oil price rise could prove detrimental for the already struggling US economy, as it might further accentuate the chance of an US economic slowdown, fearing a faltering in Asian exports, according to Bloomberg.
We have also noticed some risk de-leveraging in the alternative investment sectors, but that would be a temporary effect, according to global economists, which they expect to pass off in recent times as investors, now being more risk averse, will tend to diversify their asset holdings in the emerging markets. Liquidity crunch within the interbank system have been somewhat contained with prompt central bank interventions, but credit conditions beyond the banking sector remain much stressed. Global investors certainly look forward for a better 2008 as macro-economic fundamentals have started to improve since the last quarter.
One of the prime agenda of the Bush administration and the Fed is targeted to rescuing distressed mortgage lenders and sheltering subprime borrowers. These measures have indeed upgraded the investor sentiments while they await to see more aid from the Fed, if it likely be so needed to cut interest rates further. Fed Fund rate outlook for the next session hovers around 4.0% or even 3.5%-3.75%, industry analysts expect.
Market Pulse-Asia-Pacific- Feeling the stability!
With stabilization of global assets, equity markets might see some rebounds as indices in the emerging markets have been in their best rallies in recent times. The BSE crossed a big milestone when it touched the 20k mark around October. The Hang Seng did cross the 30k mark too. It has been implicated that the opening up of investment opportunities for Chinese investors to invest outside China for the first time have been met with success, with more investors investing in H-shares traded in Hang Seng as an alternative to the A-shares trading at Shanghai’s SCI 300. This has also created an arbitrage opportunity for the same share being traded both in Hang Seng and SCI 300.
The Asia-Pacific market pulse indicates some positive trends in the coming, partly because of some recovery in the global equity markets, except Nikkie-225 that lost around 11% for the first time in last five years, and partly by the inflow of some good information about the US labor markets, consumer sentiments and about the festive season. With C/A surpluses of Asian economies and better industrial production rates in China, India, these countries have the least minimum exposures to US subprime and a likely US or Chinese slowdown, however, enjoys substantial freedom from a sudden capital outflow or a rapid currency devaluation as it happened during the last Asian Financial Crisis in 1997, according to some analyst.
Emerging markets are awash with abundant liquidity to propel their growth engines toward sustaining this economic boom in a healthy pulse, even in the event of an impending US slowdown. It should however be noted that the Dow Jones P/E ratios are far lower than their Asian counterparts which awaits some corrections likely, of the Chinese SCI 300, as the economy have become overheated , according to Bloomberg and other economists. On a sector-wise outlook, three sectors seems to have caught the fire in the markets; i.e, the cement, steel and the Oil. Prevailing infrastructure boom in many emerging economies like China, India, Vietnam and others, correlate between the sector performances with the infrastructure and real estate growth in these countries. The mineral stocks like copper, silicon are likely favored long term stocks as well as the diamond sector and the gold stocks and the utilities, that is expected to do well even in a bad market.
Global Liquidity-Is there enough out there?
Global markets now have more liquidity and assets than any other time in history. With buoyant credit markets funding LBO deals on high leverages along with the participation of Private Equity players, there is no dearth in liquidity in the market. If the developed markets are supplying liquidity, the Emerging markets are contributing to this sustaining the economic growth, like China that contributed to the highest global growth last year-15.6% compared to 15.4% from the US. In private capital investments, US and the Japan are the major sources of liquidity in the markets, with a bulk of it from the US. As such, any major US downturn would generally hit the credit markets hard and the Asian exports would be hit due to a low consumption in the US. India, being on the forefront with major infrastructure programs being financed, which would otherwise be delayed if hit by a credit halt.
Remittances from NRI’s (Non Resident Indians) form a substantial source of forex reserve in India as like Philippines, and as such, any events effecting demands for foreign workers in US and the gulf could have an effect on inward remittances. Analysts have a view that the Central Banks now should be more active in smoothing out any volatility, credit problems or other factors that might have some adverse effects on the markets.
India Outlook
With an ever increasing India’s middle class (100-200 million), along with the consumer boom that has started to take shape lately, India is flying high in the global capital markets like a dove. More FDI and FII are flowing into the markets, targeting hot sectors like IT, real estate and the infrastructure. Annual FDI flow close to US $30 billion are expected to hit the markets and will be canalized to the fund crunched much needed infrastructure sector. India is wooing Japan to invest in India’s infra-techs, one such example being the successful completion of the Delhi metro rail project. The ambitious plan drawn up to create DMIC, -Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridors of 1500 km long, at a projected cost of around US$90 billion is under consideration by the central planning commission. The government wants to create SPV (special purpose vehicles) to fund the project. And with multiple SEZs on the pipeline, it seems India has entered the same construction boom that prevailed during Deng Xiaoping’s era in China, early 1980’s. Recent visit by the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to India and Indonesia did boost up Indo-Japan tie. Japan might be hedging against the dependency on China—an event that could be related to his more inclined visit to India.
However, Japan would be reluctant to deteriorate any ties with China, as India-Japan-China has more become like economic allies rather than pure competitor to say. India, would also like to take the opportunity to improve bilateral ties with
China, since India and China constitute the two largest and fastest growing economies in the world. Neither India nor Japan would like to jeopardize each other’s ties with China in the meantime. Though it is obvious that China and India would at some point of time in future will become chief competitors of Japan.
Thus, it throws some light that how India has positioned itself within the Asia-Pacific region demanding more attention in the regional economic cooperation and multilateral free trade ties with the ASEAN nations. Along with the US Nuke deal, India is also counting to tap on the Japan’s and France's civilian nuclear technology for its energy demands. What could give a real boost to the FTA in the Asia-Pacific region if India lowers or removes some tariff on component businesses from Japan, the same Indonesia did remove tariffs on auto-components from Japan, and Japan responded with removing tariffs on agricultural imports from Indonesia. In Fact, Indonesia is still a bigger trade partner of Japan than India, and India needs to look into this prospect.
Bilateral trade between Japan and India stands around $8.5 billion and is projected to reach $14-20 billion by 2010-2012. Even though, due to widening of investment options for Indians, there might be a continued upside potential for the BSE Sensex, since some analysts have a view that BSE could reach well beyond 23k next year, and with continued upswing, there might be more overseas investors queuing up the lane, if all goes well.
See JETRO for more on Japan’s International Trade.
Forex Markets: Exchange Rate Swings
Major traded currencies like $ and the Yen have been highly volatile, and in-fact, the dollar has lost around 10% against global currency majors. The Indian rupee has appreciated further on account of FII inflows, and some analysts expect the rupee to tighten further till 36-37/$ mark as against 39.41/$ at present. But the Rupee along with other Asian currencies is also vulnerable to risk of devaluation against a sudden reversal in capital flow dynamics, i.e., capital flight. Though it may not likely to happen in the near term as long as the dollar remains week and the emerging market growth story remains firm. The Yen appreciation to 113/$ saw the unwinding of carry trade, a tool where one borrows cheap and invests in higher yielding assets. The low interest scenario of Japan-0.50% and the continued deflation has put the Japanese yen under pressure, which saw resumption in carry trade. There was a short term bounce in GBP/JPY (219/£) against the Yen (¥) trading at 248/£ in August this year and the present range have been somewhere around a low ¥111-119/$, according to Bloomberg and ET.
The Philippine Peso has also appreciated by 10% and thus risks depreciation if the US economy slows down. Since about 10% of Philippines are overseas workers that contribute remittances from abroad which constitute 10% of their GDP, a slowdown in Gulf or the US might affect the inward remittances in Philippines, thus hurting their consumer boom. There has been much pressure from the G7 nations to revalue the Chinese yen, as it has maintained an artificial low since it got un-pegged from the US $. The Chinese Yuan is devalued around 12% against the US$ that is causing much un-pleasure since it has resulted in a huge trade imbalance between the US and the China. This is in part good for the Chinese exporters who enjoy marginal competition among the Asian exporters.
Since consumption constitutes around 70% of US GDP, credit squeeze in the US could hurt the corporate sector that might bring down consumer sentiment heavily. According to analysts, real GDP in US is growing by around 2.3% y-o-y, and some analysts forecast it around 3.2% at best. The US still remains the largest economy followed by Japan, and with an increased possibility of the US slowdown, the growth story of the emerging markets might sing on the wrong tune. An equity outflow from the Asian markets could also trigger forex weakness, since emerging markets have increased their foreign ownership in stock market capitalization. As the US still remains the major investor in global economy, a redemption pressure in the US could also jeopardize the ambitious plans in the emerging nations. Considering all these risk factors on currencies, it might be said that the financial markets in Asia are in better shape than what they were in 1997-98, during the Asian financial crisis and it likely to buffer to some extent if a full fledge global economic slowdown comes around.
Author: Sidharta Chatterejee
Being Competitive in a Global Market
Why do something differently? Productivity is a big reason. A 21st century equation explains what productivity requirements will be for the future; the concept
being half the number of people, making twice as much money, but doing three times the amount of work.
In manufacturing, this concept is coming true today. Companies are looking under every rock for opportunities to improve productivity, increase efficiency and lower costs.
In many machine shops, machining centers sit idle while manual work is still being performed. By doing things this way, the companies are not getting the most out of their machine nor their personnel investment.
In today's competitive environment, companies must identify if they are stuck in a RUT. In order to improve, they must be willing to step outside their comfort zones and create solutions.
Culture change takes place gradually, and everyone, especially the people who are out on the floor, must first have a high level of confidence that new technology will work and work reliably before they embrace it. Reliable, high-performance machines not only produce results but also eliminate your business RUT.
Author: Silvester Thompson
The Elements of Targeted Global Marketing
Global marketing is nothing but marketing done on national and international level and which involves understanding the similarities, dissimilarities and taking advantage of the opportunities to attain the goal. Concentrating on global marketing is as important as concentrating on domestic marketing if a company is aiming to increase sales.
The domestic market has become saturated in most categories of products and services, in all industrialized countries and hence, they started to deal with other countries to increase their sales. Usually in such case, goods that are too expensive for the domestic customers to buy are exported to other well-off countries.
When a company does marketing within the boundaries of a specific county, it has to compete with other domestic companies as well as international companies who are a part of the market. The marketing steps taken by the professionals are based on the taste of a specific audience. The product might not suit the taste of customers at a higher level. The other domestic companies that plan to go global hinder the growth of such companies. They become invisible at the international level as they are unable to cope with the growing competition and might not be aware of potential competitors. The product development is dependant on the need of the local residents. Such kinds of businesses are ethnocentric and are only bothered about their performance in the domestic marketplace.
Companies planning to go global should start with export to a foreign client first. The returns wouldn’t be satisfying in the beginning. The export department can be introduced at the headquarters that deals with all the laws. There can be a possibility of becoming secondary exporters by bringing export management company into the picture, who will deal with the language problem, time difference, paperwork and customers. If managing the exports without any help, the export department can be started at an office located abroad. This office works in collaboration with the regional headquarters. But the respective offshore offices take the marketing decisions, as they will have best knowledge about the particular market they are operating in.
Multinational marketing involves marketing in many countries. The marketing is based on the requirements of different countries and the returns are rewarding. Each region should be studied individually based on development, production and marketing. Such kinds of markets are known as region centric. Global marketing involves the whole globe. The entire world is summarized as a single market and the products that are released in the market should fit the needs of any regional marketplace. Marketers all over the world make the marketing decisions. Such a kind of market is known as geocentric.
Automotive industry is one such market that saw a global boost in sales during the last fifty years. Earlier only the local companies like Ford and General Motors used to produce cars in America, but today other international competitors like Toyota and Honda are operating in the same market and have out done the local companies. Another key factor to the global marketing is the Internet, which introduced e-commerce. Businesses went going online and global. This encouraged the sales of the company and the figures are only increasing because of ever increasing Internet users. The geographical location of customers is no longer a hindrance. Global marketing management and business-to-business e-commerce is growing rapidly.
Product, price, placement and promotion are the elements of global marketing. The product created should be such that it can sell anywhere using the same method. It should consider the primary elements of all the markets. However, the language in which the product is named can be changed, where as the content can remain the same. The price is never constant. It should be decided after reviewing the market and the currency of the country. The variables which affect prices are location where the product is being produced, cost of ingredients, transportation charges, labor charges, etc.
Placement is how the product is distributed and how it reaches the targeted market. Like in third world countries, there is a lack of superstores, so they can be placed or sold at ordinary shops. After the product is developed and distributed, it should be promoted precisely known as advertising, promotion is one of the major steps of marketing and consumes major part of the budget. If it is possible to send out the same message worldwide in a relevant and cost-effective way, it sure must be put into practice but the challenge is really big.
Author: Terry Detty
Global Marketing And Working At Home
Without limitations and with the proper motivation and drive, the internet has made the average business person's ability to achieve life long success tangible and real. Global marketing has revolutionized the definition of success, and has reached nearly everyone around the world with a healthy hand up in successful marketing.
So how do you get a slice of the global pie? Fortunately, the global pie is in fact large enough to share and nobody gets shorted. The first and most basic step is put in a little time researching global trends. What might be hot in one country may not be particularly hot globally. Think big and aim big so you can land big.
Finding Your Niche Global Market
If you already have a business and are taking it global, than you already have your market. Research the most effective advertising techniques for your market and begin to expand from there. Google ads and keyword optimization are basically unified for any market, so it's not a bad idea to start there. Remember the downside to global marketing, your territory just went world wide but so did your competition.
Creative marketing is vital as you do need to stand out in the global sea of marketing. If you are not a particularly creative person, do yourself a favor and be honest about and then hire someone who is to write some copy for you. Ad copy can be very powerful and creative ad copy will bring you much better results.
If you are marketing dog collars, they are going to need to stand out. What about your product or service is different and unique that someone else cannot offer to the market? Perhaps they are industrial strength and guaranteed not to break under stress? Are they original designs? Capitalizing on what makes them unique is paramount to drawing a crowd to your web site and getting those orders flowing.
If your dog collars are the basic brand with nothing fabulous to show for themselves, then what can you offer along with the orders? Sometimes something as simple and creative as a puppy newsletter or photo packages make all the difference in global marketing. Every body can run and buy a dog collar, but dog owners frequent businesses that treat their beloved pet like a prized member of the family and make their puppy special somehow. Again, if you are falling short in the creativity department, enlist the help of someone who can get the message out there with a grin. The money is well spent and if you're paying attention you may learn something for yourself that you can then apply later.
Of course the dog collar example applies to nearly every business or service out there. The information superhighway is jam packed with people wanting to pull ahead of the pack and the ideas are constantly flowing. Don't be intimidated, but get your global marketing plan together with the idea of being different.
Market Research
Don't forget the importance of researching the market and understanding what consumers are asking for and how they prefer it be delivered. No matter what business you are marketing, staying on top of the trends can significantly improve your odds of success and wellbeing.
Your marketing plan is your baby, and you need to treat it that way. Just like actual children, marketing plans need to grow along the way. What is bringing in the orders today may not continue to bring them in tomorrow. Don't let the research fall to the wayside once you start experiencing some success. Develop right along with the global market and you will continue to grow business wise as well. One of the best research and information websites available is www.Allworkathomeguide.com. Just about every topic imaginable is covered with in depth articles and advice to learn the global marketing procedure and propel your business forward.
Home Based Global Marketing
Your home office is more powerful than you might think. The fastest growing business trend is home based global marketing. People who are able to bring the power of the internet and business skills into their home office are typically more successful. They are not inflicted with territories or time constraints that limit their marketing ability outside the home.
Home based entrepreneurs are becoming more and more popular. We are finally living in a society that understands that financial success is only part of being successful. Financial success can be hollow if it robs us of the precious little time we have to love our families and to be good parents.
Home based entrepreneurs have found that sacred balance between providing for their family and being an active member of the family. It's not just men, either. In fact more women than men have brought the global market into the home office. While most cite the natural reason of motherhood for making the transition to the home based market, most women report that in the global marketplace women have greater chances at success than they do in traditional business. No longer are they randomly passed up for promotions based on their gender and their success is not longer governed by men.
Women also report enjoying the variation in their day to day challenges. They do not feel constricted as they did in the brick and mortar world and feel they have the opportunity to completely fulfill their potential through global internet marketing.
Is There an Opportunity for You?
Global marketing has become so huge that you may wonder if there is still ample opportunity out there for you. The answer is a resounding yes! The growth in global marketing has opened up a very wide playing field for finding good solid opportunities for the average business person. Global business is still a growing field and because of that the opportunities continue to grow.
New businesses like multilevel marketing and home based global marketing programs are developing daily. While there are plenty of sharks out there, it is possible to navigate the sea of options with grace and dignity and prevent yourself from getting burned.
There are scams in the market place. Just as global marketing has provided opportunity for the honest business person, it has provided ample opportunity for the dishonest one as well. Scams are typically easy to recognize if you know what you're looking for. For starters, the old adage of looking too good to be true typically is, and it is important to read the fine print of any opportunity out there. Scam artists are getting more creative, requiring business people to be more vigilant as they peruse the internet.
Any website requiring financial obligation that doesn't have contact information is not safe. They are not always scams but there should be at the very least an e-mail address but preferably an actual working phone number that someone answers when you call. You are going to call it and find out, aren't you?
Work at home scams are all over the internet, so if you are out there looking for your global marketing niche, be sure to do your due diligence. Due diligence includes looking through websites that list work at home scams and even checking with the better business bureau for information regarding specific work at home companies. Although, not all work at home scams will be listed with the BBB.
Work at home scams prey on an individual's desire to run a global marketing business from home as quickly as possible. While it is completely possible to make larger sums of money within a month or two, results like that come from the resources a person is willing to put into advertising rather than the business itself. Work at home scams promise ridiculous amounts of money in ridiculously short amounts of time. Sure, they may have made $13,000 in twenty four hours, but what they aren't telling you is that they spent a year putting a system in place to allow that to happen.
Work at home scams are most often associated with work at home programs that promise hiring rather than business opportunities. Scammers who are asking for money so they can hire you are not planning on hiring you for anything. Do not pay someone to earn a paycheck from them. Of course, a home based global marketing plan will require out of pocket expense no matter what their sales e-mail is telling you.
As you are finding your way through the global market, remember that you are not in it alone. The community at Allworkathomeguide is there to help you and inform you every step of the way. They should be charging an arm and a leg for the vast amounts of information readily available on the website. You can find information about every niche market, basic marketing advice and plans, and of course, fabulous links to actual business with actual people.
Author: Bobby Ryatt